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Long-term variability of incident wave power offshore of the Llobregat delta, illustrating significant interannual fluctuations and a recent tendency towards the clustering of energetic wave events, with important implications for coastal hazard and erosion risk.
source: Jiménez et al. 2023. Shoreline changes at multiple scales in a wave-dominated delta- The Llobregat delta (NW Mediterranean, Spain). Coastal Sediments'23, USGS, New Orleans.
WP1. Climate-Driven Coastal Hazards
This WP focuses on downscaling and integrating climate projections (SLR, wave climate, rainfall) to assess trends and future scenarios of coastal drivers. It evaluates the frequency and intensity of extreme events and compound hazards. A key method is the use of climate storylines, i.e. physically consistent narratives of past events or plausible future scenarios. For example, the 2020 Gloria storm, which caused severe damage along the Catalan coast, could be used in a counterfactual analysis to explore the implications of similar storms under higher sea levels. By anchoring risk analysis in real-world events, storylines make climate adaptation more tangible and actionable.
Cumulative compound coastal risk in the Catalan and Valencian coasts. (VL very low, L low, M medium, H high, VH very high). Circles indicate the location of the capitals of each province, if situated on the coast.
source: Romero et al. 2024. Mapping cumulative compound hydrometeorological and marine-induced risks on the NW Mediterranean coast. Scientific Reports, 14, 3237.
WP2. Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment
This WP will develop a framework for integrated coastal risk assessment, analyzing the combined effects of erosion, marine-induced flooding, and compound events. It will quantify both the likelihood and impact magnitude of each hazard, under present and projected conditions. A critical aspect is the assessment of exposed elements, such as populations, infrastructure, and economic assets, and how they are unevenly affected by different hazards. Spatial variability in exposure and vulnerability will be explicitly characterized to enhance the precision of risk evaluations.
Shoreline displacements at Gavá (Llobregat delta, Barcelona) during the period 2000-2022.
source: Jiménez et al. 2023. Shoreline changes at multiple scales in a wave-dominated delta- The Llobregat delta (NW Mediterranean, Spain). Coastal Sediments'23, USGS, New Orleans.
WP3. Regional Case Studies in Catalonia and the NW Mediterranean
The framework developed in WP2 will be applied to at least two case studies representatives of diverse coastal conditions in the Western Mediterranean, with a focus on Catalonia. The first case study will be the Llobregat Delta (Barcelona), a complex 18 km deltaic coastline hosting critical infrastructure, natural areas, urban developments, and recreational zones. This site serves as a stress test, requiring the framework to address multiple hazards and varied stakeholder needs.
A second case study, complementary in both physical and socio-economic characteristics, will be selected to broaden applicability.
Percentage of stakeholders' responses by sea basin for the following questions/statements. (a) “How effective do you consider the present adaptation strategy to SLR in your country/region?” (b) “Existing adaptation strategies/plans are flexible enough to adapt to future updates in SLR-induced impacts or to cope with the inherent uncertainty in their assessment.”
source: Jiménez et al. 2024. Sea Level Rise in Europe: knowledge gaps identified through a participatory approach. State of the Planet, 3-slre1, 3.
WP4. Stakeholder Engagement and Co-Production of Adaptation Strategies
This WP aims to collaboratively design adaptation strategies with stakeholders from each case study site. Through participatory workshops, stakeholders will co-create narrative storylines of desirable futures, and co-develop and refine adaptation pathways. The process consists of two phases: (i) Co-Design: Stakeholders contribute their visions, concerns, and priorities to develop locally grounded strategies. (ii) Trade-Off Assessment: Strategies are evaluated and refined based on feasibility, effectiveness, and scientific evidence from WP3.
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