Relevance of specific SLR-induced impacts in each sea basin indicated by the percentage of respondents who identified these impacts in a survey to stakeholders across European coasts.
source: Jiménez et al. 2024. Sea Level Rise in Europe: knowledge gaps identified through a participatory approach. State of the Planet, 3-slre1, 3.
The Mediterranean coastal zone is increasingly exposed to the combined effects of climate-driven pressures and complex socio-economic dynamics. Rapid and often uneven coastal development has significantly increased the exposure of populations, infrastructure, and economic assets to a wide range of coastal hazards. Consequently, several areas have emerged as risk hotspots, where high population densities, concentrated economic value, and recurrent hazard events intersect.
Looking ahead, this already vulnerable coastal fringe is expected to face unprecedented challenges as climate change intensifies. Sea-level rise (SLR), changing storm regimes, and the increasing occurrence of compound flooding events are projected to exacerbate existing risks while generating new sources of vulnerability. These impacts extend beyond natural ecosystems, threatening critical infrastructure, key economic sectors, and densely populated low-lying areas that underpin regional development and societal well-being.
In this context, the Catalan coastline in the northwestern Mediterranean represents an ideal natural laboratory for advancing climate-resilient coastal management. Characterized by diverse geomorphological settings, intensive human use, and exposure to multiple climate-related hazards, it offers a unique opportunity to develop, test, and implement innovative adaptation and risk-management strategies with relevance both regionally and globally.
General framework to assess the cumulative compound risk index (CCRI). MHI marine hazard index, MVI marine vulnerability index, HHI hydrometeorological hazard index, HVI hydrometeorological vulnerability index, IEX exposure index, MRI marine risk index, HRI hydrometeorological risk index.
source: Romero et al. 2024. Mapping cumulative compound hydrometeorological and marine-induced risks on the NW Mediterranean coast. Scientific Reports, 14, 3237.
This research programme sets out an ambitious and interdisciplinary agenda to develop and apply next-generation frameworks for assessing multi-hazard coastal risk under a changing climate. The proposed approach explicitly integrates dynamic physical processes -including SLR, extreme storms, and compound flooding events- with evolving socio-economic drivers such as population growth, land-use change, and infrastructure vulnerability.
Despite substantial advances in climate and coastal sciences, significant challenges remain in translating complex and uncertain climate projections into actionable, place-based adaptation strategies. Addressing this gap requires a more holistic understanding of how physical hazards interact with societal exposure and vulnerability across multiple spatial and temporal scales.
To meet this challenge, the programme combines climate science, coastal impact modelling, risk analysis, and stakeholder co-production to generate robust and decision-relevant knowledge. By bridging fundamental research and practical application, it aims to advance the scientific understanding of coastal risk dynamics while delivering innovative tools and methodologies to support long-term adaptation planning, resilience building, and climate-informed decision-making under conditions of deep uncertainty.
Objectives
Advance understanding of the evolving Mediterranean coastal hazard landscape, including the impacts of SLR, changing storm regimes, coastal erosion, and compound flooding processes.
Develop probabilistic multi-hazard risk frameworks that explicitly integrate dynamic physical drivers with evolving socio-economic conditions, exposure patterns, and vulnerability pathways.
Apply high-resolution modeling, impact assessment, and vulnerability mapping to identify and characterize coastal risk hotspots, with a particular focus on the Catalan coast and the wider Western Mediterranean region. .
Co-produce adaptation pathways and resilience strategies with stakeholders through participatory approaches, combining scenario analysis, adaptation pathways, and narrative-based climate storylines to support decision-making under uncertainty.
Strengthen the scientific foundations for climate-resilient coastal management and adaptation planning, delivering transferable knowledge, methods, and tools applicable across Mediterranean and other vulnerable coastal regions worldwide.